Political analysis is an investigation into the causes and consequences of the political phenomenon
1. Summary
We may try to ignore politics, but we cannot avoid it at a time when it has become necessary for the general public as well as the elite to understand it.
Anyone may be able to understand politics as much as possible, but politics is one of the most complex sciences and a very complex world.Hence, political analysis tries to read its uncertain world through the lenses of advanced and multiple political science in its discipline to reach a degree of certainty.
Political analysis has become a necessary need for the general public and its elite, for political science and students, for political practice and its makers.The need of the three parties is due to the complexity of the social phenomenon, its multilateralism, the difference of their interests and resources, and their constant struggle for domination.
In the midst of the complexity of the world of politics and its sciences, some may resort to disruptive simplification, but some simplification in this task is necessary.This research is an attempt to simplify the complex without prejudice to the foundations, objectives, qualifications and skills of political analysis.
Perhaps this research contributes to opening the appetite of this generation to specialize in sociology and international relations in a way that qualifies it not to realize the years of movement of societies and the intersection locally, regionally and internationally, as a condition of reconstruction after the historical veto to which the region is exposed.
2
Policy Definition
Crises without limits, possibilities without restrictions and uncertain decisions
Politics is the finest type of human thinking, which is a philosophy, science and art practiced by man since it existed on the surface of the earth.The definition of politics varied from one philosopher to another and from one political doctrine to another.We will touch here on the views of some philosophers about their view of the concept of politics, which is the basis of the task of political analysis.
The French philosopher Michel Foucault defined politics as the name given to a complex strategic situation in a given society, linked to the concepts of war and domination within societal forces and that it is life, not truth, that constitutes the political bet of these forces [1].
The 1959 Dictionary of Social Sciences defines politics as "those processes emanating from human behavior in which the conflict over the common good on the one hand, and the interests of groups on the other, manifests itself in the use of force in one way or another to end, mitigate or perpetuate conflict [2].
The Liter Dictionary defined politics in 1870 as the "science of state governance." While Robert's dictionary in 1962 defined it as the "art of governing human societies", while the French political scientist Maurice Deverger defines politics as "a continuous struggle between social groups seeking to exert control and control over the fate of the whole society".[2]
Now Finlayson, Professor of Political and Social Theories in the UK, defines politics as "the art of collaboratively reaching decisions about what to do in a context of difference, conflict of interest, inequality of power, uncertainty and risk".[3] Paul Chilton emphasizes the content of this definition: "Politics is a struggle for power and on the other hand it is a solution to conflicts of interest[3].
The bottom line in the above definition is that politics is cooperation on the one hand and conflict on the other hand between the parties to the social phenomenon in light of ongoing crises.Cooperation and conflict between these parties are two sides of the coin of science and the world of politics and a basis in the political theory leading to political settlements or conflict or between this and that in an ever-changing series and even what we call social stability is a balance of power, which is not a static balance but a kinetic one.[4]
In other words, politics is a state of constant coexistence between cooperation on the one hand and conflict on the other.Cooperation is a display of political power in which choices are formulated in such a way that conflict manifests itself and people succumb to the domination, values and interests of that power.
The power, values and interests move the political decision-maker from his circumstance in time and place to his goal through his decisions, which studied the available options and chose their proportions.There is no policy without options and no policy without crises, but crises are an irrational bastion of a political action that is never stable and options are one of its pillars[3].
The bottom line is that the root of politics is crises without borders, unfettered choices, uncertain decisions because of the presence of competitors who think in different ways and have different values and interests and are looking to make decisions under incomplete information without knowing for sure the nature of the circumstances, what is the best way to work and what effects result from any political action.
In order for the political decision-maker to come up with a specific choice, he must study all the options put forward and the reasons that support and oppose each option in order to settle according to his circumstance, goal, resources and alliances on a decision.
This means that choosing the right option requires a process of deliberation, interaction and conflict between political actors who possess alternative options and options, unequal capabilities, different goals, values and decisions in a specific temporal and spatial circumstance within the units of the existing international system to reach a choice and decision.
Taking decisions is therefore a hostile act in which actors defend conflicting tendencies in an atmosphere of uncertainty with alternatives in the face of crises.Hence the political actor needs the critical thinking machines that push him to ask multiple questions about what values, goals and interests determine his decisions in this or that crisis.
Critical thinking is the essence of real politics that puts the political actor face to face with the years of political reality and this would push him to innovate in politics as an innovation based on new forms and multiple options as a basis for political decision-making. If we add to critical thinking the lenses of political theorizing, the political actor as well as the political analyst has gained his number in political practice and in political analysis.
After this definition and a brief introduction to the world of political phenomena and its sciences, we address in the following section the foundations of the political phenomenon that helps in political analysis as we have helped define politics.
3- The foundations of the political phenomenon
*Interest does not change with the change of time and place*
The first basis
Reality has a political theory
The laws of reality bind the mind *not the psyche to reality, give knowledge of its facts and facts, and help link its events and conflicts to come up with a theoretical framework by which events are explained.
A theoretical framework, such as a viewfinder, in which it looks at the course of events to provide a theoretical perception of their complex course[7].Without them, it is in no way possible to distinguish between political and non-political realities. Hence the theories of international relations to provide a coherent objective realistic vision for the interpretation of events and to derive a compass towards them away from psychological impressions.
The second basis
The reality is neutral and the dilemma is in its stereotyping
What is reality? Is reality the opposite of imagination, the past and the future? What is the difference between reality and fiction? Is reality what social norms decide? Is the collective mentality valid? Braudel is a contemporary French philosopher who says that the concepts of subject matter and objectivity differ according to historical times and things are objective or not if they first correspond to the special view with which different civilizations consider reality.[18]
"Everything is realistic is my mind and everything is my mind is realistic," Hegel says. But what is the reality of the clergyman?is the distinction between two realities, a worldly reality and an eschatological reality.The latter is characterized by realism because it is eternal, the clock is undoubtedly present in the clergyman.
These questions determine that reality is all situations, circumstances, things, people, and places.
It is a system built (profiling or teaching) intentionally or implicitly emotionally or subconsciously. That is, reality is not an innate given, but something built[18].This confirms that reality is neutral and the decision and definition of others determines it.
If reality is neutral, there is no such thing as a negative or positive reality.Our treatment of reality is negative or positive; and it is our minds that give reality a positive or negative charge. And everything starts and ends with our minds and impressions that dictate to reality its image and it is necessary to master and criticize our thoughts away from stereotyping. The stereotyping of reality is a dilemma that afflicts religious, political and social communities alike and can only be dismantled by sociology or when it collides with reality, turning it into ruins, as happened and happens in every historical story.
Profiling or evidence is a set of beliefs that do not allow for types of possibilities and cause bias and loyalty to intuitive impressions.[19] The bottom line is that reality is neutral and independent and does not align with any party except with those who understand its age and take it and whoever understands the years of reality may discover our age that no one has discovered even regardless of its religion or opinion and vice versa.
Third Basis
Politics is interests, no motives, no attitudes.
And political success does not reflect moral failure
We learned from the definition of politics that the political phenomenon deals with the social phenomenon. Dealing with the social phenomenon means dealing with the years of social reality in all its political, economic, social and cultural details.The years of reality do not necessarily correspond to the choices of political actors.Understanding the years of reality is a guarantee of psychological and intellectual anxiety, because psychological motivation and intellectual bias have nothing to do with political impact.
Motives can rarely be determined, unlike the interests that drive the political situation and by which the political landscape is interpreted, which is unable to explain psychological and intellectual motives. Politics is interests, interests are power, and political action is to manage the power struggle.The motives may push the owner towards his goals, but he may pay a high price and nevertheless find himself far from his goals.
While the model of the state in Iraq after 2003 has moved to a model of federal (secular) rule, or the central religious mentality of the Arabs is still living with a centralized model of religious rule that is outdated before the 1920s on the one hand, while the Arab nationalist mind lives with a centralized secular model of governance that ended in 2003.
Hence the historical psychological and intellectual motives that the Arab mentality adheres to in one valley and the realistic political interests in another.[5][6]
Political success does not reflect moral failure, but may combine them, and political failure does not reflect moral success, but may also combine them. The harmony of Saudi Arabia and Turkey, for example, with the international system since the end of World War II may be one of the reasons why both sides have survived politically and morally from the chaos that has afflicted the Arab nationalist system as it has been isolated from the course of the international system and extinct.
The insistence of any movement or state on inertia and non-response to challenges is the beginning of disintegration, aging, suicide, political and moral failure, unlike the march with the cosmic and social year that leads to renewal and the survival of the effectiveness of any system or state, and this is one of the years of human scramble* and if God had not pushed people together, the earth would have been destroyed.
It is not correct to talk here about the employment of the harmonious with the international system and the nationalism isolated from it because theories of political reality distinguish between objective facts and psychological or intellectual impressions as well as between the undesirable and the desirable possible.
Reality may correspond to morality if its age is respected unlike those who went with morality and left interests, so interests and morals were gone, hence Theoside's saying, "Interests guarantee bonds[9] Chapter VI, Section III Theosides and Capital."
Fourth Basis
No compulsion in religion
No coercion in politics
And there is no science except in a space where freedom prevails
Religion is a relationship between man and his Lord, which comes to him voluntarily, without coercion.Nor coercion in religion is news in the meaning of forbidding and forbidding here is a general and unconditional arbitrator in the sense of *do not force* which is what the audience of commentators went to.[12]
One of the principles of the Fiqh al-Sharia (as the science of the origins of jurisprudence states) is that "embarrassment is legitimately raised" ("what God wants to make you embarrassed; but wants to cleanse you" [al-Ma'idah: 6]; "He is the one who has brought you to you, and what has made you embarrassed in religion." [Hajj: 78]) And that "necessities allow prohibitions" ("Whoever is compelled not to bathe and not to return, there is no sin on him!" [Al-Baqarah: 173]; "Whoever is compelled not to bathe nor to return, God is forgiving and merciful!" [Bees: 115]) And that "the borders (sanctions) are shielded by suspicions" ("Pay the borders what you find a cannon for." [Ibn Majeh: Hudud, 5]; "Shield the borders from the Muslims as much as you can, if he has a way out, let him go, then the Imam to make a mistake in pardon is better for him than to err in punishment!" [Tirmidhi: Borders, 2]) , and that "kindness is required in all things" ("God loves kindness in all things.") [Bukhari: 6024]; «[...] God is a companion who loves kindness and gives to him what he does not give on violence." [Muslim: 2593]; [Ibn Majeh: Literature, 9]; "Kindness is in nothing but his adultery, and he is not taken away from anything but his own." [Muslim: Barr, 78] [Abu Daoud: Jihad, 1]). Thus, it is a shame that the "invalids" seek to make "Islam/religion" a conjugation of the scourges of "coercion", "violence" and "intimidation" as the reality of "religiosity" among Muslims is replete with the reality of "religiosity" among Muslims, and thus to attach them unjustly and aggressively to the religion of God [13].
If this is the order of religion, then the matter of politics is taking place in this way. In "The Natures of Tyranny" in "The Quest to Lift Tyranny," al-Kawakibi warned that the nation "may resist the tyrant with another authoritarian market in which it is characterized as the most powerful thorn of the first autocracy. If it succeeds, this driver washes his hands only with the water of tyranny, it also benefits nothing; it replaces a new disease with a chronic disease. Freedom may be forgiven, as well as benefit from it.
That is why the wise men decided that the freedom that benefits the nation is the one that it obtains after being ready to accept it, and that which is obtained after a foolish revolution rarely benefits anything. Because revolution often merely cuts down the tree of tyranny and does not uproot it, it soon germinates, grows and returns stronger than it was first."[14] "The only effective way to break the tide of tyranny is to elevate the nation in perception and sensation, and this can only be achieved through education and motivation. Tyranny should not be resisted by violence, so that it is not a sedition that reaps the people."[14]
.
The progress of nations and peoples depends on non-coercion in religion and the State. Freedom is the basis for scientific brilliance on the one hand and on the other hand for the model of governance leading to historical transformation, for science and freedom "have appreciated all societies, their eternal yearning, and their salvation from fear, ignorance, and mystery."[10 articles]
Perhaps a reflection in the mirror of history confirms this proposition in the Qur'anic example that contributed to the transition of humanity from ignorance to civility with the model of governance in Medina and in the European example that called that watershed phase of lights through the realization of reason in new sciences specialized in the study of man after the Thirty Years' War, which produced a new model of governance.[11]
Fifth Basis
No one monopolizes the one, the Sunday who doesn't favor anyone
(No one monopolizes right and right)
(Absolute right is not owned by anyone)
The explanation of the origins of the belief of the people of the Sunnah and the community to Imam al-Lakai recounts that *two outsiders roamed the house, and one of them said to his owner not to enter heaven from this creation other than me and others. His owner said to him, "A paradise offered by heaven and earth was built for me and for you?! He said, "Yes, and he said, 'She is yours,' and he left his opinion."[15]
This exclusionary outlook that characterized yesterday's Kharijites and Daesh today also characterized Catholic Orthodoxy, which was based on the enactment of a single doctrine that does not allow anyone, whoever it may be, to communicate with God Almighty outside the teachings of its bishops.
This view undoubtedly comes as an inevitable result of a long upbringing on the basis of a single statement and its characterization as a totalitarian character that is categorical in its truth and its certainty, without regard to any other statements or doctrines in the matter under consideration, except as stray from the right path or heretical in the event of kindness with their owners.
If we had radiated in the ports of our culture of all kinds the principle of the relativity of truth in words, deeds, graduations and interpretations, this would not have been the case of a large segment of those who subsist on our culture and claim the right to represent it.
This exclusionary view has led to violence and murder in the name of Allah, and you see the dead man saying Allahu Akbar and you see the murderer saying Allahu Akbar as he kills.This violence and extremism often results from the belief of this or that group that it is the owner of the snout of absolute truth in its view of people, the universe and life, and therefore finds no way to perform its mission in life except to force the offending people not to destroy themselves and to return them to the absolute truth.[16]
Ibrahim al-Bileihi believes that "the relativity of truth is one of the obvious things, and he says that it is obvious that there is no human being who has all the facts perfectly, but each individual adheres to what he thinks is so, and selects from the texts, proofs, attitudes and events what he convinces himself of and continues to select, until the different and pressing attitudes force him to re-examine his thoughts, and if each party puts his ideas under the microscopes of analysis, everyone approaches the core of the truth under the lights of mutual forced revelations.[17 Articles]
Pluralism of opinions and ideas is a positive phenomenon called for in the Qur'an more than 1723 times. They develop thought, strengthen opinion, and show creativity. One of its necessities is not to possess (absolute truth); because the claim of possessing these facts prevents free thinking, and contradicts the freedom of thought and discussion.The Qur'an has told us the story of two companions who say one of them to the other* The owner said to him while he was talking to him Akfirt* (Cave v. 37) Here are two companions who are talking, one of whom is a believer and the other an infidel, and the believer has shown his owner to the infidel his point of view, denouncing his infidelity by putting forward a scientific proposal without inviting him to his religion.
The bottom line is that all humanity is under the rule of the One Sunday, and it is not true that one of the parties monopolizes the truth for his own benefit because you cannot say that my will and God's will are the same, even if you are pious, if it is true with the individual, it is true with the community and society, "and if your Lord wills, the people in the earth will believe all of them, do you hate people so that they may be believers."
If God were with one side of the conflict and not the other, that party would always triumph from Adam (peace be upon him) to today's world. But the eternity is rounds of arrivals between this party, and some of them are victorious and some of them are losers according to the fact that this party took the tooth and left the other to it, and God does not favor anyone "and whoever works whether he is rewarded with it" (al-Nisa' 122).
Sixth Basis
Every space has its own law and there must be a constitution and on the contrary chaos
In the History of Modern Philosophy by the American philosopher William Kelly Wright, the latter attempts to summarize and simplify Hobbes' ideas about politics and its relationship to morality. On page 77 of the book, he says: Natural law is an idea or a general rule, which man discovers through his mind that it is in his interest to obey it, and therefore he is obliged to do so.[20]
In other words, political success achieves moral success and vice versa.Ethics here are subordinate to interest and not vice versa.Because moral, intellectual or religious motives *stereotyping or evidence* may take its owner away from the interest and cause imbalance.Politics has its own law that is discovered by reason and religion has its own law brought by revelation.
The dilemma lies in two things: first, understanding religion away from the mind charged with understanding text and reality, and mixing this *imaginary* understanding with stereotyping reality away from interest will lead to violence. It is like those who mix dawa and the state or between the sword and the state from the groups of political Islam today.
If we add that religion has consensus and its texts are timeless, unlike politics, in which there is no consensus and its facts are changing due to the different interests of the parties. Religion and morality include specific general values and principles for the integrity of human behavior that are valid for all human beings without regard to time or place unlike politics. What would it be like if religion and politics combined without a constitution regulating the relationship between religion and the state, the ruler and the governed?
Then the broad religion narrows, it gets stuck with the non-gender, it distorts, it kidnaps and disturbs politics, corrupts morals, and people get confused or it becomes chaos, and this is what is happening in the Middle East.
4. Political Analysis
Definition of Political Analysis
A theoretical bridge to reach practical certainty through practical experience
The word analysis refers to the word inquiry derived from Greek origin or to the decomposition of an object into its primary elements.
The meaning of an investigation applies to analysis because it attempts to discover the interrelationships between the elements of a scene, i.e. a biological or social landscape, in order to understand the scene in a well-organized manner.[38]
Political analysis is one of the branches of political science and is essential for the student of politics and the politician and for anyone who wants to know what is going on. It is a classification of the main actors in society and the identification of how they influence progress towards their goals, their way of making their decisions and developing strategies for interaction to achieve their goals[26].
As for Essam Zeidan, he says that political analysis is the accurate understanding of the course of events, the awareness of their motives, and the answer to the question of what happened and why it happened by probing the depths of the event historically and betweenly, and realizing the nature of the relevant parties in the event [21].
Abd al-Maati Zaki's political analysis is the way we judge political phenomena and events locally, regionally and globally, and therefore he needs to understand the political reality of the country and the relationship of this political reality to international politics [22].
The bottom line in the definition of political analysis is that it is an investigation into the causes of the political phenomenon and the interaction of the parties to the conflict and its possible consequences in an objective and correct way and a strategic reading.A correct method that answers real questions and tries to reach a degree of certainty in the uncertain world of politics serves the student of political science and his proposals the political decision-maker.And to reach the wrong result in a correct analysis method is better than to reach a correct conclusion in a wrong analysis way.
5. Foundations of Political Analysis
A theoretical model and an experimental method
The first step in the correct method of analysis is to follow a theoretical model in the analysis of the political landscape. Political analysis is characterized by the complexity, criticism and renewal of the political phenomenon.
The model and perspective of theoretical analysis focuses on trying to find out the direction of the compass of power in the context of political phenomena, political actors and political discourse. The idea of context is fundamental to understanding the phenomenon and political discourse and that any political event can only be understood within its context. As Van Dijk says[3].
Therefore, any analysis assumes the development of a theoretical model for the discovery of facts because the model assumes basic concepts in analysis and theoretical assumptions that correspond to political choices on the one hand and the formation of political theory on the other hand, enabling the analyst to discover the contradictions of the political scene.
Within the framework of methodological aspects, the analysis should be carried out in a logical way that combines the choice of model (theory) with experimental methods. The challenge is that there is an open relationship between the theoretical model and empirical methods and whether the theoretical models used are appropriate in political analysis as not every chosen theoretical model is appropriate in every analysis.
If one model repeatedly fails to discover facts, another should be sought.Conversely, if the model presents new insights, it will take on greater importance and contribute to the advancement of models, scientific theories, and political action.[38]
In the experimental analysis phase according to a specific theoretical model, the analyst brainstorms and describes the political scene by answering whom? What exactly happens? When did it happen? How did it happen? Why did it happen? Who are the actors in the scene? What are the interests of the actors? What are its resources? its incentives? its tickets? its strategy? Channels done? Who benefits? Who pays the price? What are their psychological and social needs?How do they think?and who is the negative or positive influencer on the course of events? Who has the power and the decision to influence the course of events? [23] [24] [25].
Through answers, events are linked to the theoretical model, and the main actors are classified according to their interests, goals, and vision of the type of conflict and the way they are managed.
In the process of collecting facts, a distinction should be made between the positions and discourses of the political parties and their interests, because it is the interests that move the parties, not the positions, as well as the resources of the parties and their alliances tactically and strategically.
6. Political analysis Why?
*No work or political analysis is 100% guaranteed*
It became clear to us through the definitions of politics and its foundations that political analysis is a necessity for several reasons:
First, because it is a bridge linking political science to political action, it comes out with a theoretical framework that reflects the political phenomenon.
Second, because the political landscape is usually sponge, uncertain, ambiguous and also immoral.
Third, because the efficiency of political action cannot be measured according to the standards of the good of the world.
Fourth, it is impossible to objectively measure the fairness of political action.
And fifth, because there is no political action that is 100% guaranteed.
Sixth, because politics has no mechanical work and no ready-made molds.
Seventh: To make an appropriate decision on it by the political decision-maker.
Eighth: Let the decision-maker and the public know the direction of the compass and the student of political science learns its secrets[37].
If so, then in the following section we talk about the theoretical qualifications of political analysis and practical political analysis skills.
Any mature political analysis requires the scientific theoretical qualifications and practical skills of the political analyst to be able through the use of the foundations of the political phenomenon to extrapolate the course of events and build a vision that works to explain the event and deduce what may happen as well.
7. Qualifications of theoretical political analysis
*Recognize the context of interests and the context of change*
Theoretical Qualifications
One of the basic theoretical qualifications in political analysis is the availability of high flexibility in the ability to build a theoretical framework for events, to know the features and types of political theories, to familiarize themselves with the structures of political systems and systems locally, regionally and internationally, to know how these systems work with each other, to identify the main factors involved in the political phenomenon and its interactions, and to be able to describe the sorting of public policies for them.[25]
Definition of Theory in International Relationship
The term theory is defined as a unit of clear, comprehensive, coherent and self-correcting information for a vast amount of data that helps in understanding, predicting, evaluating, and monitoring the relations of states [27].
The term theory in the social sciences has a special function, which is that it organizes the researcher's thought and information to ask questions that enable him to organize his knowledge, guide his research and interpret his findings.
Theory in the social sciences and international relations has a special concept: the first lenses to look at reality to understand the same event from a different perspective and to reconstruct what you see.
Second, it is an extrapolation system that leads to proposals. The third is a taxonomic division that enables the analyst to organize information.
Fourthly, proposals on political behaviour stemming from comparative studies are compiled. Fifth, it is the development of a set of attitudes about rational behavior based on one dominant factor such as power.
Sixth, a set of values that shape political behavior, and seventh, and finally, it is a set of proposals for action to be presented to politicians.[7]
Diversity and specialization of theories of international relations
Because theories of international relations are diverse, specialized and the world of politics is extremely complex, political analysis needs to be precise in choosing the type of theoretical model in analyzing the political landscape linked to time, place and subject.
Some of the theories of international reasoning are normative * liberal theory * which speaks of a multiple federal world looking for peace, relations and rights, some of which are empirical theories that talk about the balance of power * realistic theory * and some of which are theories that serve as descriptions that meet the needs of the political decision-maker.Unlike theories, it is the impression and intuition based on the esoteric sense that prevails beyond the facts.[7]
Interpretation of the Realist Theory of International Disputes
The state in the realist school is a fundamental rational actor in an international system in which the interests of states conflict and power is the means to preserve the interests of the state and seeks to increase power, show power and maintain power. [29].
Interpretation of geopolitical theories of international conflicts
Some theorists of international relations consider states to be geographical and demographic organizations whose borders are subject to change in the interest of the more powerful state [7].
Interpretation of the constructivist theory of international conflicts
Constructivist theory has gained importance in the post-Cold War world due to the peaceful end of the Cold War, and the conversation focuses on the perception of different groups of their identities and interests and how to understand and absorb the chaos of the conflict of identities, interests and norms overlooked by realist and liberal systems. [30] Essay.
The entry of the policy of power and evidence on the geographical and demographic arena in international and regional conflicts here is to transcend borders through proxy war or directly to achieve the goals of the state or those factors, whether by the factors of non-state or the alliances of states.The constructivist theory does not rely on the chaos of the international system in its interpretation as realists do, but the chaos of the conflict of identities led by societies more than led by the leaders of states and leaders of the international system[15][31].
Interpretation of the New Realist Theory of International Disputes
Traditional realism combines constructivist theory, combining the chaos of the international order with the chaos of the clash of identities and trying to loosen the separation between the internal environment of the state and the external environment.There is a new realism defensive, offensive and cooperative new realism.The theory of neorealism has opened the door to the influence of the internal determinant in guiding foreign policy. [32] YouTube.
The bottom line in the theories of political action is that they are a fundamental basis in choosing the theoretical model in political analysis, although it is difficult to adopt one theoretical model over another (Mamdouh al-Shoman).
The interpretation of a theory may override a particular event depending on the type of event* bringing realism to conflicts, liberalism to economic problems, Marxism to poverty and wealth, and the place and time of the event influencing the choice of theory.[33]
The failure to use the lenses of international relations theories in political analysis may be offset by a critical sense of the political analyst or the mentality of a lawyer who relies on the cause-and-effect relationship relationship or the comparison model to arrive at an analysis.
Without a theoretical model or a comparative pattern, the analyst may lose the world of multiple possibilities of the political phenomenon and enter it into the world of ready-made judgments and the adoption of intuition or esoteric sensations or evidence and fall into the prohibition.
The bottom line in the theoretical political analysis skills is that it is the ability of the political analyst to analyze the interactions between influencing factors and political structures, understand the differences between traditional and contemporary societies, distinguish between parties, interest groups and social movements and know their impact on political stations and events.
From understanding political reality. [34] .
The function of theoretical qualifications is that it gives the political analyst the ability to understand the two most important steps in any mature political analysis and the two steps are to understand the contexts of interests and the contexts of change. The change lies in the ability of one party or the other to bring about a change.
Hence, the answers to the questions of interests are important in what does this party want * power, wealth, rights * and what resources and alliances it has in order to achieve its goal? And who are the owners of real reconciliation?How do the parties move other parties* proxy wars, money, weapons*, who pays and who benefits?The answers to the weapons of change are also important, including who is the decision-maker?Who has the key to the decision?Are there other mediators and decision-makers?Is there one chess game in the political scene or more than one game at a time?
Does the conflict of interests have different frameworks in influencing the power factors between the main actors? These include the direct ability to make a decision, for example, the indirect ones, such as societal values, and the hidden ones, such as the existence of secret agreements with one party or the other[26] [38].
In conclusion, there are no ready-made templates in politics and no mechanical work, but there are bargains, alliances, resources and interests that control the compass of events.Political analysis has major challenges ahead of it that it must overcome to understand the context of interests, the context of change, the ability to adapt and strike opinion with opinion.However, any political analysis will remain with it and with it the uncertainty that exists even if the analyst takes his paths and takes note of the basis of analysis and the skill of all of them.[3]
8- Practical Political Analyst Skills
*Qualified scientific bargaining mentality Renewed neutral organization*
Political analysis deals with a complex and changing reality that has its facts, figures, events and facts.The analysis needs a balance, objectivity, scientific, impartiality, skills and qualifications that help link the relationship between the factors of the event influencing it.and answer what happens, why it happens, how it happens and where the compass of the event is headed.
Hence, political analysis needs a person with experience, insight, practical background and a renewed organized mentality that collects the right information from independent sources.Then he reads the event from more than one angle and lens and reconnects it with a theoretical framework by which he interprets the event convincingly.The successful political analyst is the one who succeeds in bridging the gap for the decision-maker and the public between complex political science and ambiguous political work to explain the political phenomenon with an easy and abstaining vision that explains the political scene.Hence he needs to possess the skills of practical political analysis and knowledge of the foundations of reality. The aforementioned theoretical politician qualifies him to link them and employ them in the formation of a political vision[35] PowerPoint.
Characteristics of a successful political analyst
*The closer the mentality of the political analyst to that of the lawyer, the closer his analysis is to the right*
The characteristics of a successful political analyst lie in having a mentality closer to that of a lawyer who assumes aspects of the dilemma and plays within the rules of the legal game and wins the case. The political analyst has to work within the rules of the political game.
The political analyst should verify the sources of his information so that they are not incorrect, independent or unconfirmed and never rely on a single source. The work of the political analyst according to the right foundations of mind, science and art will be transparent and simple that can be understood and followed, especially if he uses numbers, dates, names of places, international agreements and political standards.
However, the analyst remains in any case unable to take note of all the facts and is certain that his analysis will be marred by some uncertainty about the nature of the political phenomenon that makes living with uncertainty a duty in political analysis.
Brief Specifications of a Successful Political Analyst [35-39] PowerPoint.
Common sense, logic and rational experience
Independent thinking, evaluation and critical presentation
Rational analysis with some uncertainty
Building theoretical models that explain the network of political relations between actors
A bargaining mentality is closer to the mentality of the lawyer than to the mentality of the judge
Combining the foundations of abstract science with the foundations of political practice
Critical description and analysis of political texts and situations in the light of theories of international relations
Make suggestions, assumptions and uncertainties and not recommendations or decisions to the decision maker
A lighter pen, a computer that doesn't close, a full board, a reading that distinguishes between nausea and fat, and a list of priorities.
Trained to speak publicly in front of people and the media
Sieved for reports and events and skills renewed quantitatively and qualitatively
Inverted thinker and creator of ideas for articles, researches and theories
Ability to quickly analyze in a timely manner and identify winners and losers
Ability to compare and build a comprehensive theoretical rational model
Has practical wisdom and focus on concrete events to reconcile possibilities and consequences
Knowledge of the complexity of the conflict, its effects and the rules of the political phenomenon characterized by the scramble for different interests
Not to neglect notes just because they contradict what he expects
An analyst as an astronomer does not view this pattern of star composition as good or bad, but looks at it as it is.
An inherent curiosity and a constant interest in collecting information on various topics and ideas that enrich his science, culture and knowledge.
A long-term historical perspective is necessary to make predictions
The reader or listener of the analysis should have no doubt that he is getting the objective analysis
9. Case Study
Gulf Crisis
We have also learned that politics is a crisis without limits, possibilities without restrictions and uncertain decisions. Some of the crises may be unexpected incidents.
The Gulf crisis has surprised all political, academic and media circles and has become the talk of the hour after the Trump summit in Riyadh and is a candidate for continuation.
First:
Storming and description
1
There is a Gulf crisis between the GCC countries, which was established in 1981 to counter Iran's ambitions. That is, there is a Gulf-Iranian crisis and a Gulf-Gulf crisis. Just as the Gulf crisis is managed by the United States, the conflict between the GCC and Iran is also American-managed and has not spiraled out of control since the Iran-Iraq War until the Gulf crisis.The parties to the conflict in this crisis are the GCC countries, Iran and the United States of America.The interest of the United States does not allow for a zero-sum conflict either between the parties of the Gulf Cooperation Council or between it and Iran and may want the two banks to meet face to face.
The Gulf crisis may provide a cover that prevents Iran from attacking the western Gulf bank.Iran may find it in its interest to seize the opportunity of its rapprochement with Russia and Turkey in Astana on the one hand and the Putin-Trump agreement in Syria on the other hand to conclude a regional international agreement under the cover of the Gulf crisis.
2
Because the context is central to political analysis, this crisis came in the context of summits in Riyadh that preceded it and a new Middle East alliance that the Riyadh summits announced would be announced in 2018.Riyadh summits brought together Islamic countries except Iran, which Russia and Turkey combined in the Astana agreements.
Could the Gulf crisis, which divided the GCC countries into three sections, be a suitable door to open a dialogue that begins with a Russian-brokered solution to the GCC crisis and ends with a Gulf-Iranian solution? Especially since Russia has good relations between Iran and the GCC countries.
The U.S. has called on Russia to help resolve the Gulf crisis.Saudi Arabia's opening to Iraq may be an indication in this way.This is consistent with the principle that it should not be taken out of control in this vital region.
3
The crisis has caused a Gulf movement, a regional Gulf movement and an international Gulf movement.Kuwait has moved to contain the crisis in coordination with the United States, Britain, Germany and France.
The crisis caused a regional overlap represented by the presence of Egypt with the boycotting countries, Turkey and Iran with Qatar.This regional international movement is more an indication of an agreement than an indication of a zero conflict.An agreement not only between Qatar and its brothers from the Council but also between the GCC countries and the permanent members of the Security Council with Iran. Despite the passage of forty days, the crisis did not reach a zero-sum clash and no statement was issued by the General Secretariat of the Gulf Cooperation Council!
secondly
Theoretical model
After the storm and description, we need to analyze according to a theoretical model and a practical analytical approach according to the foundations of the political phenomenon.The theoretical model in political analysis is the basis for reaching a degree of certainty in the world of uncertain politics as it connects the diverse political sciences with its complex world.The alternatives to the theoretical model in political analysis may be in the pattern of cause and effect or the pattern of comparisons between one case and another, otherwise the analysis will fall into the epilepsy of intuition.
It is better to arrive with a coherent comparative theoretical model or cause and result to a wrong result than to reach a correct conclusion by intuition.Whoever takes a theoretical model and says the theory of the game or that it is a conflict between the proponents of realism and liberalism has been injured.
Whoever compares its repercussions with the Kuwait crisis and according to the theoretical comparison model similarly has held a good origin in the analysis.40 40 days of the crisis have proved that its conflict is not zero, that it is unexpected, that the choices of its parties are rational and that a way out of control is unlikely.
The theory of regional security in international relations also serves to explain the Gulf crisis.The end of the seventies appeared.According to it, the GCC is a branch of the international system.According to it, the GCC states are considered conflicting countries and not alliances.
The theory gives the GCC states the ability to shape the geopolitical landscape in the Middle East in their favor without leading to its disintegration.Indeed, it has been 38 years since the formation of the Council and the heaviest and longest bloc has become a hand in a region witnessing a historical comma since 1979.
thirdly
Practical Approach
Analysis into the main crisis factors
homeostasis
Conflict usually involves paying, pulling, taking and giving between the two parties to find a balance that has been missing in the region since the occupation of Iraq.
The life cycle of this conflict moves from the circle of "us and them" that began after 1979 to the circle of violence in the Iran-Iraq war. Then the conflict enters an impasse that ends in attrition and then an agreement and this happened on 8-8-88.
Just as the first episode of the conflict ended with an armistice agreement on 8-8-88, its current episode stretching from Iraq to Syria to Yemen to Lebanon to Qatar may end with an agreement similar to the 8-8-88 agreement or on the weight of the Lausanne nuclear agreement.
This is consistent with what we have learned in this study that the crisis itself is an irrational factor that may rationalize the political landscape in an unstable international order.That is, the crisis will push political actors to make rational choices that may rationalize or complicate the scene more than it will lead to its spiral out of control.
If the target is Iran and its regional hub from Baghdad to Damascus to Beirut to Sana'a, as announced by the Riyadh summits, and in order not to get out of control, the time is right for those who inherit it to be present in its areas of influence. The GCC states are aware that there is an uprising that will lead to the fall of Wilayat al-Faqih, so dividing the GCC states into three parties may help in this direction.
Qatar, Oman and Kuwait may be eligible for a role in other regions and boycotting countries, especially in Iraq and Lebanon.Putin's agreement may come Trump in this direction because there is no solution in Iraq and Lebanon without a solution in Syria.Hence perhaps the military movement came before and during the crisis to confirm that its goal is to defuse escalation and pave the way for an agreement that is not a possible agreement between the two shores of the Gulf rather than waging an open war in a vital region.This is consistent with the rules of conflict that are based on pushing, withdrawing, taking and giving. Between the two parties to find a balance, especially after things between the two parties have reached the stage of attrition.
The fallout from Kissinger's trip to China in 1972 may resemble those of his trip to Moscow in 2017 that preceded Putin's Trump agreement.China's trip led to the withdrawal of China's hand from the Soviets, the Soviets collapsed, and his trip to Moscow could lead to Russia's withdrawal from Iran to sign a compliance agreement similar to the Lausanne agreement before the Iranian regime collapsed.Trump
fourthly
The bottom line
The theory of regional security is suitable in explaining the crisis and has answered the most important questions, and the conflict between the owners of liberal theory and the owners of realistic theory may fix a theoretical model in the explanation of the crisis.
The boycotting countries are proceeding according to the policy of the realist school and Qatar is approaching its policy with the liberal theory.It may also be appropriate to say the theory of the game or the theory of the comparison model.We compare the repercussions of the Kuwait crisis with the crisis of Qatar. All these theoretical models say that the conflict is not zero, the GCC system is effective, and its disintegration is out of the question.
The analysis suggested that the crisis pre-empts the declaration of an international-regional coalition aimed at terrorism of velayat-e faqih with an international agreement on the weight of Lausanne or Camp David or the 8-8-88 agreement, an alliance that asks Iran to move from revolution to state and puts Iran between responding to the international community or fleeing forward for every recent incident.
fifthly
Evaluation
This analysis may have been able to come up with a coherent vision that linked political science with its world and provided the political decision-maker, the student of political science, as well as the public and his elite, with an objective strategic summary that can be renewed according to the developments of the political scene of the Gulf crisis.
All over
10. Conclusion
In this research, I reviewed the full cycle of political science that starts from the societal phenomenon to the political phenomenon to political practice to the analysis of the politician who links and controls political practice with the controls of political science.The task of the political analyst is probably similar to the task of the one who is looking for a needle in a haystack on the one hand and on the other hand a lighthouse that guides decision-makers in the seas of politics on the routes of walking and avoiding areas of danger.Hence the political analyst needs to be objective, methodologically strategic to protect himself from criticism, and avoid pitfalls. To this solemn task, centers of political analysis and research are assigned to develop a methodology and content that qualify specialists in political analysis, adjust the course of political practice with the controls of sociology, and be a revolving door open in both directions between the centers of analysis on the one hand and between them and political science and its scientist on the other.
11. Sources
1- Mitchell Foucault and the Question of Power 2016 - From Reductionism to Fragmentation - Towards Taoelian Phenominology of Power - Believers Without Borders - Muhammad Amin Ben Jilali [ pp. 71-12 ]
2- Ahmed Salim Al-Barsan - 1434 for Migration - Political Science - Concepts and Foundations - Jeddah - [pp. 3-13]
3- (Ispella Berklau and Norman Vercano 2016Analysis of political discourse - Transmission to Arabic - Defattah Gomorrah - Dar al-Farqad - Damascus. [p. 3] [pp. 10-17] [p. 5]
4- Dr. Said Hussein Abdouli-2015 in the sociology of the "Arab revolutions" through the trinity of time - a forward-looking analytical attempt at the manifestations of change (borders and contradictions) University of Carthage (Tunisia). [pp. 1-2]
5- (Henry Kissinger) 2015 The World Order - Reflections on the Vanguard of Nations and the Path of History - Translation of Fadel Jacter - Arab Book House - Beirut Lebanon. [pp. 115-120]
6- (Renad Mansour) 2016 The Sunni Predicament in Iraq – Carnegie Middle East Center. [p. 1]
7- (Algerian Encyclopedia of Strategic Studies) – 2015 – Theorizing International Relations. [ p. 1 ] [pp. 1-5]
(8-9) - Thucydides and Ancient Simplicity - Chapter VI Section III - Thucydides and Capital - Book Electronic Version - English -
-10- Moncef Wannas, 1988 The State and the Cultural Question in Tunisia, Dar El Methaq for Printing, Publishing and Distribution, Tunisia
11- Economic Variables - December 1995How can they affect the Arab future? Al-Arabi Magazine, Issue 445, Kuwait. [Article]
12- Jadallah Bassam Saleh, Jihad Muhammad Nuseirat - 2015 - No Coercion in Religion - Comparative Explanatory Study - Studies of Sharia and Law Sciences, Volume 42 Issue 3 - Deanship of Scientific Research / University of Jordan. [First page]
13- Mohammed Shahrour - No compulsion in religion - The New Syrian Website. [p. 3]
https://newsyrian.net/ar/content/%D9%84%D8%A7-%D8%A5%D9%83%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%87-%D9%81%D9%8A-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AF%D9%8A%D9%86
14- Al-Kawakibi- The Natures of Tyranny-2009- The Investigation of Mohamed Amara,-Dar Al-Shorouk-[p. 137]
15- Imam Al-Lakai - Abu Al-Qasim Hebatullah ibn Al-Hassan ibn Mansour Al-Tabari Al-Razi Al-Lalakai - Deceased: 418 AH - Explanation of the origins of the belief of the people of the Sunnah and the community - Edition: VIII, 1423 AH / 2003 AD - 1334:7 - Investigation: Ahmed bin Saad bin Hamdan Al-Ghamdi - Publisher: Dar Taibah - Saudi Arabia. [1334:7]
16- Yusuf Abu Al-Khail - Islamic Consideration for Non-Muslims - Riyadh Newspaper - Wednesday 23 Ramadan 1426 AH - 26 October 2005 AD - Issue 13638. [Article]
17- Ibrahim Al-Bileihi - Denial of selectivity is one of the sources of ignorance - Riyadh newspaper - Sunday 26 Safar 1422 AH - 20 May 2001 - Issue 12018. [Article]
-Problems of Reality-Philosophical Blogging-[p. 1]mehdijebrouni18-
http://jebrounisme.arablog.org/2015/05/22/%D8%A5%D8%B4%D9%83%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%88%D8%A7%D9%82%D8%B9/
19. Lee Gossim, Social Perception and Social Reality-2012-University of Oxford-Why Accuracy Dominates Bias and [p. 320] Self fulfilling prophecy-oxford university
20- William Klee Wright, 2010 - History of Modern Philosophy, translated by Mahmoud Sayed Ahmed, Introduction and Review in front of Abdel Fattah Imam, Library of Momen Quraysh. [p. 77]
21- (Essam Zeidan) 2009 Principles of Political Analysis - Theoretical Knowledge and Practical Applications First Edition - Review - Hisham Mustafa Abdel Aziz. [p. 8]
22-(Abdul Maati Zaki) 2011How to be a successful political analyst - [p. 1]
http://alrased.net/main/articles.aspx?selected_article_no=3568
23- (Dr. Ines Zia Mahdi) 2013 Analysis of the influential strategic forces of political discourse - a case study of the political speeches of Barack Obama. [pp. 1-3]
24-(Hussein Khalaf Moussa) 2013How to analyze the political text, Arab Democratic Center. [pp. 1.2]
25. Stephen Jaffe and David Jadock, 2004, Political Analysis, in English[p. 1] [pp. 1-3]
http://stepup.ucsf.edu/sites/stepup.ucsf.edu/files/Political%20Analysis%20for%20Collaborative%20Process%20Managers.pdf
26- (Mohammed Shalabi) 1996 Methodology in Political Analysis - Concepts - Approaches - Tools. House of Wisdom for Media, Publishing and Distribution. [p. 11] [pp. 156-165] [pp. 1-3]
27-(Wassan Zuhdi Shaheen) Theories of International Relations - [pp. 1-3]
www.pal-monitor.org/UpLoad/uploads/cbfb98cfc1.doc
28- Simplifying the basic theories in international relations - YouTube - 2013 - Translated by Hamza bin Abdulrahman
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L0WIVIPR6-4
29-(Steve Smith) 2014 Theories of International Relations Lenses to Read Reality Syria Model
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g2NEwT451V8
30-(Dr. Essam Abdel Shafi) 2011 Realism and idealism in the analysis of international relations.
31- (Fatima Essam Abdul Majeed Ahmed) 2013The impact of the end of the Cold War on the theory of international relations. Arab Democratic Center. [Article]
John Mearsheimer - 2014 - YouTube - Structural realism. [YouTube] -32
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gh6bYUsJY6g
33- Tim Dunn-Melia Curie-Steve Smith-International Relations Specialization and Diversity- 2016- Translation by Dima Al-Khadra- Published by the Arab Center for Research- Oxford House Limited- [p. 25]
34-(Iraqi Center for Strategic Studies)- 2016-Political Analysis. [Article]
http://iraqicss.org/index.php/ar/2013-10-07-10-11-02/82-2013-09-26-13-40-15
35. The art of political analysis. PowerPoint
http://www.auc.edu.ps/ar/uplaod_files/FILE20140209064006.ppt
36. Volker von Breitweitz - Political Analysis. PowerPoint
IPAInstitute for Political Analysis
Volker von Prittwitz: Text System Political Analysis 4. What is Political Analysis?
37. Why political analysis. [pp. 1-5]
http://eduresourcecenter.blogspot.com.tr/2010/08/why-do-we-study-contemporary-political.html
38- (Robert A.D.) 1991, Modern Political Analysis - Fifth Edition - Translation of Ola Abu Zeid and review by Prof. Dr. Ali Al-Din Hilal. [p. 1] [p. 3] [pp. 180-188]
39. Analyst and Decision Maker
www.auc.edu.ps/ar/uplaod_files/FILE20130514225405.ppt
40- Mohammed Haider Al-Ali - Discussion of the book Black Swan by Naseem Taleb. [YouTube]
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UWidqKJFe0U
Author Dr.Omar Abdul Sattar Mahmoud
الكاتب د.عمر عبدالستار محمود